Overview

Light offshore gradient winds dominate Thursday, with a weather shoreline in play pulling the breeze left near the top of the course, but a right trend throughout the day should be evident as the low pressure system to the east moves away from Miami. Very important to be sharp on wind shifts during practice starting today, as favored end will change rapidly.

Weather Analysis

Currently a weak low has stalled to the East of Miami, killing the gradient breeze, and bringing scattered rain.

The European model shows light offshore flow in the morning with more wind aloft bringing puffy conditions.

Not enough temperature differential exists between the land and water for thermal development, so expect the gradient wind to dominate all day.

Wind aloft is slightly windier - around 10-13 knots - making that a probable upper limit of wind speed. Little variation in wind direction aloft means puffs likely have little correlation with direction.

Geography Versus Gradient

One interesting feature of the race course will be the weather shoreline. Expect lighter breeze at the top of the course and generally more left angle at the top relative to the bottom. This could favor the left slightly upwind, though the trend will likely be hard to tell until the end of the day.

Over the course of the day, the wind angle will trend towards the right as the low pressure system moves away from Miami.

In absence of pressure differences, this combination of factors may favor the straight set and extending to the right side looking downwind, but trust your eyes.

Summary

Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with underpowered conditions unless the low pressure system clears out ahead of schedule.

Expect the breeze to trend to the right throughout the day.
Left angle may be present in the lighter pressure closer to land.
Right angle may be present in more breeze farther from land.
Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze.
Evaluate wind direction during the starting sequence, as late shifts will change the favor of the line a lot.

Outlook

Strengthening breeze for the remainder of the weekend bring 3 solid days of racing conditions. Moderate to light air on Friday, is followed by a strengthening pressure system Saturday which will bring windy, flat water conditions. Moderate conditions on Sunday conclude the event.