Bacardi #3 Slide Deck
Sentinel March 2 Santa Barbara Practice
Bacardi #2 Debrief Slide Deck
Bacardi #2 Debrief Material
Forecast For Friday, January 29
Overview
Last night a cold front brought peak wind, with temperatures dropping dramatically. Today, expect to see more breeze, cold temps, and fading breeze throughout the day as we transition from the clearing low pressure into a high system to the west. Interestingly this could bring left shift as the high moves closer, which is unusual for a clearing cold front in Miami. Very little wind shear is present, so the weather shoreline is likely to make the left strong on the aggregate. With offshore flow, expect a puffy, shifty race course with more wind away from land.
Weather Analysis
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Little variation in wind direction down low versus aloft today, and fairly stable wind direction throughout the day today mean that offshore shift patterns and geographic effects will dominate today.
Overall, expect a shifty day and trust your eyes. With that said, the weather shoreline may cause the left to be stronger in aggregate. The local knowledge in this wind direction is that the left pays when the wind is left of the Miami skyline.
Boat Handling Day
With big breeze, clean boat handling will be very important, so avoid port tack layline, and keep your lives simple by looking for low density positions on the starting line.
Summary
Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with a slowly fading breeze throughout the day.
A small left trend may be present, which may correspond with clearing skys (fewer clouds).
Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze, but most important will be staying lifted with the fleet.
Largely a boat handling day - trust your eyes strategically, and put the boat in spots where it’s easy to execute good boat handling.
Outlook
Expect a tapering breeze Sunday, slightly farther right, but still flat water
Forecast For Friday, January 28
Overview
Today the low pressure to the northeast starts to strengthen and intensify, bringing building gradient breeze. Some wind shear might be present with puffs associated with right shift in the wind. With offshore flow, expect a puffy, shifty race course with more wind away from land. Pressure will start lighter - probably around 8 knots, and gradually build with some puffs to 15 possible late in the day. Models differ slightly, so pay attention to the wind angles around 1000 to see which model is winning.
Weather Analysis
The low pressure system that kept wind light yesterday is beginning to strengthen and move north, bringing a stronger offshore gradient flow.
The European model shows wind right of 270 at 1000AM.
In contrast, the North American Model shows wind farther left, around 250-260 at 1000.
Yesterday the North American Model (NAM) did a better job predicting the light offshore conditions. Today the North American Model shows moderate wind shear (pictured below) with wind aloft 10-15 degrees farther right than at the surface. Look for a correlation between puffs and right shifts today, especially if the breeze starts out to the left of 270 at 1000AM.
Surface wind around 250-260.
600m wind (puffs) farther right.
Throughout the day, both models show a right trend to the breeze with the European model ending up as far right as 315 by 1800. This right trend will probably be visible on the water, as it will bring more breeze down the course.
Geography Versus Gradient
Geography will play a big role today with a weather shoreline. Generally weather shorelines are associated with less pressure, and more left shift, but this might be a small effect relative to the righty puffs if you see the right shift-puff correlation discussed above, playing out. In either case, the straight set around the top mark should benefit from both right puffs, and an average right geographic trend as you get away from land.
Where you guys will be sailing, a wind direction of around 300 degrees is perpendicular to the shoreline, so if you are on the water when the wind gets to the right of 300, don’t be totally married to a strategy that worked prior.
Summary
Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with light conditions to start, building and trending right throughout the day.
Expect the breeze to trend to the right, with pressure bringing right shift.
Clouds forming to the north in the late afternoon may help to indicate the pressure build and right shift.
Look for a correlation between puffs and right shift - especially if wind is left of 270 at 1000.
Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze.
Evaluate wind direction during the starting sequence, as late shifts will change the favor of the line a lot.
Outlook
Tonight a cold front comes through, causing a strengthening breeze Saturday that will remain from the N-NW. Saturday, expect a fade to the N-NE for the final day of racing.
Sail Shots From Thursday, January 27
Forecast For Thursday, January 27
Overview
Light offshore gradient winds dominate Thursday, with a weather shoreline in play pulling the breeze left near the top of the course, but a right trend throughout the day should be evident as the low pressure system to the east moves away from Miami. Very important to be sharp on wind shifts during practice starting today, as favored end will change rapidly.
Weather Analysis
Currently a weak low has stalled to the East of Miami, killing the gradient breeze, and bringing scattered rain.
The European model shows light offshore flow in the morning with more wind aloft bringing puffy conditions.
Not enough temperature differential exists between the land and water for thermal development, so expect the gradient wind to dominate all day.
Wind aloft is slightly windier - around 10-13 knots - making that a probable upper limit of wind speed. Little variation in wind direction aloft means puffs likely have little correlation with direction.
Geography Versus Gradient
One interesting feature of the race course will be the weather shoreline. Expect lighter breeze at the top of the course and generally more left angle at the top relative to the bottom. This could favor the left slightly upwind, though the trend will likely be hard to tell until the end of the day.
Over the course of the day, the wind angle will trend towards the right as the low pressure system moves away from Miami.
In absence of pressure differences, this combination of factors may favor the straight set and extending to the right side looking downwind, but trust your eyes.
Summary
Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with underpowered conditions unless the low pressure system clears out ahead of schedule.
Expect the breeze to trend to the right throughout the day.
Left angle may be present in the lighter pressure closer to land.
Right angle may be present in more breeze farther from land.
Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze.
Evaluate wind direction during the starting sequence, as late shifts will change the favor of the line a lot.
Outlook
Strengthening breeze for the remainder of the weekend bring 3 solid days of racing conditions. Moderate to light air on Friday, is followed by a strengthening pressure system Saturday which will bring windy, flat water conditions. Moderate conditions on Sunday conclude the event.
2019 Bacardi Cup - Boomslang
Today was day one in a charter boat, and the last day before racing starts, so the priority was on dialing in the setup, shaking down the rigging, and ensuring that the team was ready to go for racing tomorrow. The following debrief hits on a few key points for performance this week, but also incorporates some ideas for longer term technique development.
Settings Progression
What was the settings progression throughout the day?
Thoughts on lowers: The wires pull from just under the spreaders, well above the vang, making this largely a lateral mast bend tool more than a fore/aft mast bend tool. See Mast Tip photos above.
General setup thoughts: Setup progression went well - as you got the rig dialed things started looking balanced, and the boat seemed to respond well in the pressure. I think that the three main places to make gains at this stage are in getting the jib shape to be more twisty to match the main, making the main more twisty if you need a bow down mode in the chop, and in getting the weight more involved both upwind and downwind. By pressing your weight more when the boat enters puffs upwind and downwind, you’ll help it accelerate, build apparent, and help Geoff not have to steer as much.
Local Knowledge
Rule of thumb: From the northerly direction, if the wind is left of the city, left is likely strong due to convergence off of the shoreline. If wind is right of the city, fairly open race course - know your angles, and win your side. The following video is pretty rambling, but Auggie Diaz is probably one of the best sources of local knowledge in Miami.
Around 3:00 he talks about the direction that we will likely see tomorrow.
Around 7:00 he talks about the direction that we saw today.
From a velocity standpoint, the GFS model is usually the most reliable in Miami. Looking like 10-15 tomorrow and possibly Friday.
Who will call tactics?
Downwind Thoughts
As we got down the course into more breeze, weight movement got better, and speed seemed good. I think that in general, being more active with weight will allow you to steer less, and build more apparent wind, even in the moderate wind strengths.
Nail your vang mark downwind. Important to look at leech dynamics - you want the battens to flick one after another - not all together as a hinge (too tight on vang) and not totally unrelated to each other (too loose on vang).
Shorten tack line knot?
Gybing: Work on gybing more rudderlessly. The following photos are a really good example of what often went wrong in the gybes. Initially, the heel in the entry was really good, but then half way through the gybe, everyone starts crossing and boat heels to the old leeward side before sails have crossed, meaning the rudder has to work harder to turn the boat and the boat slows down a lot. Key is either speeding up the turn slightly, or slowing down weight movement. Turn has to be in sync with sails, which cross fairly slowly, so it’s likely that the answer is to keep weight up on the old side longer.
