Forecast For Friday, January 29

Overview

Last night a cold front brought peak wind, with temperatures dropping dramatically. Today, expect to see more breeze, cold temps, and fading breeze throughout the day as we transition from the clearing low pressure into a high system to the west. Interestingly this could bring left shift as the high moves closer, which is unusual for a clearing cold front in Miami. Very little wind shear is present, so the weather shoreline is likely to make the left strong on the aggregate. With offshore flow, expect a puffy, shifty race course with more wind away from land.

Weather Analysis

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Little variation in wind direction down low versus aloft today, and fairly stable wind direction throughout the day today mean that offshore shift patterns and geographic effects will dominate today.

Overall, expect a shifty day and trust your eyes. With that said, the weather shoreline may cause the left to be stronger in aggregate. The local knowledge in this wind direction is that the left pays when the wind is left of the Miami skyline.

Boat Handling Day

With big breeze, clean boat handling will be very important, so avoid port tack layline, and keep your lives simple by looking for low density positions on the starting line.

Summary

Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with a slowly fading breeze throughout the day.

  • A small left trend may be present, which may correspond with clearing skys (fewer clouds).

  • Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze, but most important will be staying lifted with the fleet.

  • Largely a boat handling day - trust your eyes strategically, and put the boat in spots where it’s easy to execute good boat handling.

Outlook

Expect a tapering breeze Sunday, slightly farther right, but still flat water

Forecast For Friday, January 28

Overview

Today the low pressure to the northeast starts to strengthen and intensify, bringing building gradient breeze. Some wind shear might be present with puffs associated with right shift in the wind. With offshore flow, expect a puffy, shifty race course with more wind away from land. Pressure will start lighter - probably around 8 knots, and gradually build with some puffs to 15 possible late in the day. Models differ slightly, so pay attention to the wind angles around 1000 to see which model is winning.

Weather Analysis

The low pressure system that kept wind light yesterday is beginning to strengthen and move north, bringing a stronger offshore gradient flow.

The European model shows wind right of 270 at 1000AM.

In contrast, the North American Model shows wind farther left, around 250-260 at 1000.

Yesterday the North American Model (NAM) did a better job predicting the light offshore conditions. Today the North American Model shows moderate wind shear (pictured below) with wind aloft 10-15 degrees farther right than at the surface. Look for a correlation between puffs and right shifts today, especially if the breeze starts out to the left of 270 at 1000AM.

Surface wind around 250-260.

600m wind (puffs) farther right.

Throughout the day, both models show a right trend to the breeze with the European model ending up as far right as 315 by 1800. This right trend will probably be visible on the water, as it will bring more breeze down the course.

Geography Versus Gradient

Geography will play a big role today with a weather shoreline. Generally weather shorelines are associated with less pressure, and more left shift, but this might be a small effect relative to the righty puffs if you see the right shift-puff correlation discussed above, playing out. In either case, the straight set around the top mark should benefit from both right puffs, and an average right geographic trend as you get away from land.

Where you guys will be sailing, a wind direction of around 300 degrees is perpendicular to the shoreline, so if you are on the water when the wind gets to the right of 300, don’t be totally married to a strategy that worked prior.

Summary

Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with light conditions to start, building and trending right throughout the day.

  • Expect the breeze to trend to the right, with pressure bringing right shift.

  • Clouds forming to the north in the late afternoon may help to indicate the pressure build and right shift.

  • Look for a correlation between puffs and right shift - especially if wind is left of 270 at 1000.

  • Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze.

  • Evaluate wind direction during the starting sequence, as late shifts will change the favor of the line a lot.

Outlook

Tonight a cold front comes through, causing a strengthening breeze Saturday that will remain from the N-NW. Saturday, expect a fade to the N-NE for the final day of racing.

Sail Shots From Thursday, January 27

Forecast For Thursday, January 27

Overview

Light offshore gradient winds dominate Thursday, with a weather shoreline in play pulling the breeze left near the top of the course, but a right trend throughout the day should be evident as the low pressure system to the east moves away from Miami. Very important to be sharp on wind shifts during practice starting today, as favored end will change rapidly.

Weather Analysis

Currently a weak low has stalled to the East of Miami, killing the gradient breeze, and bringing scattered rain.

The European model shows light offshore flow in the morning with more wind aloft bringing puffy conditions.

Not enough temperature differential exists between the land and water for thermal development, so expect the gradient wind to dominate all day.

Wind aloft is slightly windier - around 10-13 knots - making that a probable upper limit of wind speed. Little variation in wind direction aloft means puffs likely have little correlation with direction.

Geography Versus Gradient

One interesting feature of the race course will be the weather shoreline. Expect lighter breeze at the top of the course and generally more left angle at the top relative to the bottom. This could favor the left slightly upwind, though the trend will likely be hard to tell until the end of the day.

Over the course of the day, the wind angle will trend towards the right as the low pressure system moves away from Miami.

In absence of pressure differences, this combination of factors may favor the straight set and extending to the right side looking downwind, but trust your eyes.

Summary

Overall, expect a puffy, shifty day with underpowered conditions unless the low pressure system clears out ahead of schedule.

  • Expect the breeze to trend to the right throughout the day.

  • Left angle may be present in the lighter pressure closer to land.

  • Right angle may be present in more breeze farther from land.

  • Edges of the fleet will be high percentage in the gradient breeze.

  • Evaluate wind direction during the starting sequence, as late shifts will change the favor of the line a lot.

Outlook

Strengthening breeze for the remainder of the weekend bring 3 solid days of racing conditions. Moderate to light air on Friday, is followed by a strengthening pressure system Saturday which will bring windy, flat water conditions. Moderate conditions on Sunday conclude the event.

2019 Bacardi Cup - Boomslang

Today was day one in a charter boat, and the last day before racing starts, so the priority was on dialing in the setup, shaking down the rigging, and ensuring that the team was ready to go for racing tomorrow. The following debrief hits on a few key points for performance this week, but also incorporates some ideas for longer term technique development.

Settings Progression

What was the settings progression throughout the day?

Full Photo Gallery Here

Thoughts on lowers: The wires pull from just under the spreaders, well above the vang, making this largely a lateral mast bend tool more than a fore/aft mast bend tool. See Mast Tip photos above.

General setup thoughts: Setup progression went well - as you got the rig dialed things started looking balanced, and the boat seemed to respond well in the pressure. I think that the three main places to make gains at this stage are in getting the jib shape to be more twisty to match the main, making the main more twisty if you need a bow down mode in the chop, and in getting the weight more involved both upwind and downwind. By pressing your weight more when the boat enters puffs upwind and downwind, you’ll help it accelerate, build apparent, and help Geoff not have to steer as much.

Local Knowledge

Rule of thumb: From the northerly direction, if the wind is left of the city, left is likely strong due to convergence off of the shoreline. If wind is right of the city, fairly open race course - know your angles, and win your side. The following video is pretty rambling, but Auggie Diaz is probably one of the best sources of local knowledge in Miami.

Around 3:00 he talks about the direction that we will likely see tomorrow.

Around 7:00 he talks about the direction that we saw today.

From a velocity standpoint, the GFS model is usually the most reliable in Miami. Looking like 10-15 tomorrow and possibly Friday.

Who will call tactics?

Downwind Thoughts

As we got down the course into more breeze, weight movement got better, and speed seemed good. I think that in general, being more active with weight will allow you to steer less, and build more apparent wind, even in the moderate wind strengths.

Nail your vang mark downwind. Important to look at leech dynamics - you want the battens to flick one after another - not all together as a hinge (too tight on vang) and not totally unrelated to each other (too loose on vang).

Shorten tack line knot?

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Gybing: Work on gybing more rudderlessly. The following photos are a really good example of what often went wrong in the gybes. Initially, the heel in the entry was really good, but then half way through the gybe, everyone starts crossing and boat heels to the old leeward side before sails have crossed, meaning the rudder has to work harder to turn the boat and the boat slows down a lot. Key is either speeding up the turn slightly, or slowing down weight movement. Turn has to be in sync with sails, which cross fairly slowly, so it’s likely that the answer is to keep weight up on the old side longer.

USVI December Training

Hey guys,

Thanks for hosting me this week! I had a great time working with you all, and hope to get to do it again soon. I’m going to keep the written portion short here because of my hand, but below you’ll find a playlist of videos from this week (thanks Florencia!), a playlist of good light air videos to compare to from the SoCal sailors, and a debrief from the last two days that i have recorded. If you have any questions please let me know. Hope to see you all soon!

Best,

Willie


This Week’s Playlist

SoCal Playlist

Cherry Bomb Harbor 20 Debrief

Hey Jane, Tom and Mom,

Nice work on Saturday - that was quite a long session, but I felt like we covered a lot of ground, and improved a lot on all of the drills we worked on. I wanted to send you a quick, written debrief to recap what we talked about and to give a few suggestions for where to go from here.

Hope this helps, and looking forward to getting in the boat with all of you again.

Best,

Willie

Pre Start

The first thing we talked about this weekend was pre-start routine. Every good race starts with a little bit of research. Go out there, check out the line, check out the wind, check the current, and make a game plan. Here is a checklist that we go through before every single start (and you should too!):

  1. Take a wind shot to check wind direction - Jane steers head-to-wind and calls it, while Karen and Tom look at the compass.

  2. Check current at inboard end and outboard end to determine if one side of the course has favorable current.

  3. Run the line to get line heading, then do geometry math (+/-90 degrees) to find out which end of the line is favored.

  4. Do three practice starts to judge how far from the line you can be at 30-40 seconds (how much distance will you cover in 30-40 seconds including a tack.

  5. Decide if the wind is a thermal (direction around 235, hot in Ojai, “sea breeze”, likely clear sky with some exceptions), or a gradient wind (not the thermal, and not a Santa Anna). If it is a thermal, seriously consider going right on the first beat, and then gybe-setting around the top mark.

Feel free to text me on Wednesday (I’ll try to remember to text you) about the conditions for the day - happy to give my thoughts on which side of the course will likely pay.

Starting Ideas

Starting is all about judging time and distance and learning your options for controlling each. We did a lot of boat control drills and starting drills this weekend to practice slowing the boat, and timing your final approach. While this isn’t the final product that you need to learn to nail the starts, it’s a great start (no pun intended), and if you practice judging the time distance, you’ll get better and better at it. Jane, remember that you have 2 options to slow the boat - a “speed check” where you put the bow above close hauled and let the boat slow, or a big duck down below a beam reach to sail extra distance. I tend to try to do the speed check early, and the duck later (closer to “go”) so that you don’t accidentally get too slow right before the gun.  This takes a lot of practice, and even more practice to be able to execute well next to the competition without fouling, but what we worked on was 70% of the challenge. Two big things to keep in mind are:

  1. Always try to be on port tack one minute before the start, and tack to starboard around 50 seconds. Try to position yourself 40 seconds from the line so that you have 10 seconds of wiggle room “to kill”.

  2. When in doubt, bail out and try to start on port!

Downwind Tactics

This is a topic that you mentioned having questions about Jane, but one which we didn’t really get into. While it’s a very broad topic, the most important thing for you to understand is the basic downwind tactical building block of asymmetric racing - the jump. Here’s a technical article that I wrote about this play a while ago, and there’s a more digestible version in the book I wrote on tactics if you scroll down to play DW3.1. There’s a lot more info there if you’re inclined to read about it. I would stick to 3.1 as well as the downwind strategy portions at first as most of this is very high level.

Overall Team Philosophy

I know I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but the number one thing that I would stress for you guys as a team, is that all parts of your racing should be able to fit into a nice, neat process. Tom talked a bit about Kent and my interactions onboard when we sailed the Centennial Cup - calm and objective. This comes from both knowing our roles around the race course, in everything from decision making to boat handling. We’ve developed this from lots of racing obviously, but to expedite the learning curve, you might consider going through the exercise of building out a “boat handling playbook” (see template below), wherein each person’s role gets defined for each maneuver.

This is not intended to be a tool for placing blame, but a learning tool to help everyone remember what they’re working on - remember, there are a lot of pieces to memorize in a good system so mastering it will take time! In other words, when (not if) things don’t go according to plan, go back to the document and remind yourself of the system that you’re working on building. Next time we get a chance to go out again with the four of us, my top priority would be spending some time working on this boat handling playbook to ensure that everyone is doing their roles in to each maneuver

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